5:59 v originále: Why is everyone afraid to go to war with Houthis in Yemen

Houthi rebels have shocked the West and its allies in the Middle East by seizing control of Bab al-Mandab strait, important chokepoint for global trade. Will they now use their position to plunge the world into an economic crisis? And what are they all about, anyway?

The war in Yemen, once talked about as a source of the worst humanitarian crisis in today's world, has been going on for more than a decade now, but it disappeared from the radars in the last four years or so due to the relative calm on Yemen's battlefields.

That calm is now a history as the whole world is watching images of renewed clashes between the forces of the Aden-based, internationally recognized government of Yemen and the fighters of the armed Ansar Allah movement, better known as the Houthis.

The rapid advance of the Houthis who've taken vast stretches of the Red Sea coast and at one point also Perim (Mayoun) Island lying just off the coast of Yemen in the narrowest point of Bab al-Mandab between the Arabian Peninsula and the Horn of Africa sent shockwaves around the world, still rattled by the continuing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz.

„Personally, I was not surprised that the Houthis were able to do this, because they have been gaining strength while the other side is mired in corruption,“ Nabeel Khoury, non resident senior fellow of Arab Center Washington DC and former US diplomat, told 5:59 podcast.

„The forces [of the internationally recognized government of Yemen] have often inflated their numbers in order to get more money from their patrons. (…) In reality, they were not really up to the challenge of facing a full onslaught by the Houthis,“ the ex-diplomat who also served at the US embassy in Yemen as the deputy chief of mission, further explained.

Listen to the full interview with Nabeel Khoury:

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However, Khoury does not expect the Houthis to start blocking the shipping in the Red Sea, with the exception of Saudi vessels as they consider Saudi Arabia their principal enemy. And while they do have the potential to disrupt all traffic through the Red Sea, they seem to be honoring a non-aggression agreement with the Trump administration.

Therefore, it seems to be very unlikely that the Houthis will soon meet their match, militarily. „For them to be defeated there would have to be a large army against them on the ground. And I don't mean the internationally recognized government because they have proven to be a failure militarily as well as politically. I mean an international army - American troops, Israeli troops, Saudi troops,“ says Nabeel Khoury, adding that such intervention seems to be out of the question.

„I don't see any of these countries [committing troops], certainly Israel is not going to send troops. They may engage in a few bombing raids but they're not going to send troops to Yemen. The US has no intention of putting boots on the ground in Yemen either,“ explains Khoury.

As for the Saudis who bear the brunt of cross-border attacks by the Houthis, Khoury does not not believe they would let themselves be drawn into a full-fledged war with the Houthis again, after engaging the Yemen-based group from the air (and for a limited period of time also with invasion force in the border region in the north of Yemen) for eight years without success.

„Saudi Arabia does not have the military assistance that it needs for a full scale war against the Houthis and so they are trying to backtrack and come back to the peace negotiations with them,“ opines the analyst.

If you want to hear how the Houthis have transformed themselves from a small political party and militia to a quasi-state power capable of interfering in a regional conflict or how much cooperation there is between them and the Iranian regime, listen to the full 5:59 podcast in the audio player above.